Hello everyone. The voices behind this column and our podcasts are Ben Horwitz, Aaron Stalkfleet and Jacob Williamson. We are current seniors, and involved in various things (and sports) at City. Our shared love of football and aggressive competitiveness is what initially inspired this column. Each week we plan to put out a different fantasy football prediction/analysis for the next NFL week. We appreciate your support and will be competing to see who has the best analysis.
This week we are doing a Boom/Bust analysis. We randomly pick the players below for this week’s games, and we each get to predict whether we think they will go above (Boom) or below (Bust) their ESPN fantasy projections. We each pick two players from each position group. We make picks based on matchups, personal opinion, and player projection. After the first week, we will be keeping track of our personal records of our predictions throughout the season.
OUR RECORDS THROUGH 10 WEEKS
This weeks (11) possible choices:
(All based on ESPN projections)
QB Patrick Mahomes 22.2 pts
QB Tua Tagovailoa 20.3 pts
QB Kyler Murray 18.9 pts
QB Joe Burrow 18.6 pts
RB Dalvin Cook 18.3 pts
RB Jonathon Taylor 17.5 pts
RB A.J. Dillon 17.0 pts
RB Saquon Barkley 15.9 pts
WR Deebo Samuel 18.0 pts
WR Ceedee Lamb 16.3 pts
WR Marquise Brown 15.5 pts
WR D.J. Moore 14.4 pts
TE Dan Arnold 10.3 pts
TE Tyler Conklin 9.4 pts
TE Dawson Knox 9.3 pts
TE C.J. Uzomah 7.2 pts
Aaron’s Picks Week 11
(Total Record 33-42)
Just a horrendous showing this past week of 2-6 plummeting my overall record to 33-42. I am now falling further and further behind my opponents and it’s gonna take consecutive showings of good performances to climb back into reach of their records.
QB Tua Tagovailoa 20.3 pts – BOOM
I like Tua to have a great game against a bad Jets team and defense this week. He has only scored over 20.3 twice this season but I think turning that number into 3 times this week is a good bet. This selection is in the middle of the confidence scale.
QB Joe Burrow 18.6 pts – BOOM
Burrow and the Bengals travel and face the Raiders in Las Vegas. I like Burrow and his weapons to prevail and beat a struggling Raiders team. This is a high confidence selection with not much reasoning to it. And rightfully so.
RB Jonathon Taylor 17.5 pts – BOOM
Jonathon Taylor has been on an absolute tear as of late. In fact, he has scored over his projection of 17.5 this week in his last 7 starts, yes 7 starts. Truly remarkable. This week, however, it’s gonna be tougher, a lot tougher. The Colts play the Bills this week and it is by far their toughest opponent since Taylor began his stretch of 7 straight games of over his point projection for this week. Regardless, I like him to boom because of the stretch he has been on, but admittedly, it is gonna be close.
RB Saquon Barkley 15.9 pts – BOOM
Saquon looks to make his return this week after not having played since week 5. He has battled an ankle injury and word on the street is that he is looking better and better in practice and back to his normal self. Unfortunately, fans have not really seen his “normal self” in some time due to countless injuries. If Saquon can play a reasonable amount of snaps on Monday night vs the Buccaneers in his much-anticipated return, I like him to boom as he will need to take in a big part of the Giants offense for their success to occur. This is a tricky selection with him coming off the IR and playing for the first time in 6 weeks or so.
WR D.J. Moore 14.4 pts – BOOM
D.J. Moore has not been himself as of late after starting the season extremely well. This week, unlike the previous couple, he has a more favorable matchup to produce vs a rather bad passing defense in the WFT. Coupled with that, it is being reported that Cam Newton, who the Panthers recently acquired via free agency, is going to be their starting QB this week. I like Newton to revamp Moore’s struggles and turn him back into the receiver he once was at the beginning of the year. That is more speculative than anything, but at this point, Moore can take anything he can get. This selection is in the middle of the confidence scale.
WR Ceedee Lamb 16.3 pts – BUST
Lamb is coming off of a 28.60 performance last week against Atlanta. This week, it won’t be that easy as the Cowboys face off against the Chiefs in AGOTW on FOX. Although we have seen better defenses than the Chiefs in recent memory, they are certainly better than the Falcons defense. Now, you don’t wanna get into this game where you’re comparing defenses as a measure of picking players, but it is one of many measures you can use. Regardless, I like Ceedee to come close, but not boom this week against a matchup at Kansas City.
TE Dan Arnold 10.3 pts – BOOM
Dan Arnold has quietly had a nice season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has accumulated 13.7, 10.0, and 14.80 over the course of the last 3 weeks. This week, the Jags get the 49ers at home. With the way Arnold has played as of late, I like him to boom 10.3 points. As I’ve said before, predicting (TE) boom/busts is harder than any other position. It is a wait-and-see game.
TE Tyler Conklin 9.4 pts – BOOM
In his last 4 weeks, Conklin has scored 16.1, 9.5, 10.7, and 10.1. In other words, he has scored over his pt projection for this week in each of his last 4 starts. If you look at who he has played in terms of the opponent’s defense over those 4 games, it is not much different than that of the Packers defense who the Vikings face this week. Conklin booms this week but it is close and it truly is a toss-up.
Jacob’s Picks Week 11
(Total Record 35-38)
After having by far my best week going 6-2, I am as close to .500 as I have been in a while. With this week’s picks, I am more confident than ever that I will not only go over the .500 mark but be back in the running for the top record this season.
QB Kyler Murray 18.9 pts – BOOM
After being out for the past two weeks due to an ankle injury, there is no reason to me why Kyler shouldn’t be back to his usual self this week against the Seahawks. Adding on to the fact that this seems like a somewhat low projection for points, which Murray could easily go over in this week.
QB Patrick Mahomes 22.2 pts – BUST
I just don’t have the same confidence in Mahomes as I did week one. He has been a flat-out bad quarterback for weeks now, while he played a great game last week against the Raiders. I just don’t see the same for him or the Chiefs in general against a very good Cowboys team this week.
RB A.J. Dillon 17.0 pts – BOOM
With Aaron Jones having to miss time due to an injury, Dillon should step into Jones’ role very nicely for the next couple of weeks. Having scored over 20 points last week against the Seahawks, it would be hard for me to believe that he won’t do that same against a mediocre Vikings defense.
RB Dalvin Cook 18.3 pts – BUST
Cook hasn’t been his usual self this season, with major consistency issues. Due to the fact he is playing a red-hot Packers defense this week, I just don’t see him succeeding much at all.
WR Deebo Samuel 18.0 pts – BOOM
Samuel has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He has emerged as a top target for the 49ers this season and I don’t see his production going down anytime soon. Samuel is a must-start this week against one of (if not the worst) teams in the league in the Jaguars.
WR Ceedee Lamb 16.3 pts – BOOM
After having by far one of his best games of the season last week against the Falcons, Ceedee will be facing yet again another terrible defense this week in the Chiefs. I expect nothing short of an air raid approach this week from one of the top offenses in all of football in the Cowboys. While he might not score 30 points again this week, Ceedee should have no trouble going over his point total this week.
TE Dan Arnold 10.3 pts – BUST
Tight-end picks are always the hardest to project and with that being said, Arnold has played very well the past three weeks. Having scored over 10 pts each of the past three games, most would find it hard to not expect the same going forward. With that being said, being a player on the Jaguars this season has been anything but glamorous. Going up against a team in the 49ers who just crushed what many consider to be Super Bowl favorites in the Rams, I just don’t see the Jaguars having much success at all this week.
TE Dawson Knox 9.3 pts – BOOM
Knox had a game to forget last week against the Jets, with having only one reception for 17 yards. Even though the Bills play the Colts this week who have a much better defense than the Jets, I see Knox being much more involved. Being one of the top red-zone targets for Josh Allen, I see no reason as to why he couldn’t go over his point total this week.
Ben’s Picks Week 11
(Total Record 37-36)
Again, I come in with a 4-4 record. I am sitting pretty with the best record, as Jacob and Aaron are both sitting under .500 by a few games. I need another positive week, as it has been a while since I had a great week of projections. One more big week will give me a more comfortable lead, so let’s try and make it happen.
QB Patrick Mahomes 22.2 pts – BOOM
He’s back. Last week Mahomes shook off the funk that haunted the start of his season as he threw for 400 yards and 5 TDs in primetime. Without a doubt, he is the best QB in the league in sheer talent, and I refuse to bet against him. Hopefully, his matchup vs. the Cowboys will end in a shootout, as two high-powered offenses battle it out. Start Mahomes with no worries.
QB Kyler Murray 18.9 pts – BUST
QB predictions are by far my worst record, as it always seems to go wrong for me. Regardless of that, I am going with another interesting pick. Kyler has every opportunity to crush his projection, but I don’t think it will happen. I see their matchup against the Seahawks being similar to last week’s Seahawks vs. Packers game. The Seahawks manage to make games painful every week, and I just see this one being low-scoring, although it could easily go either way. Still start Kyler, but don’t expect a huge week. I won’t be surprised if he comes in a few points above or below 20 points.
RB A.J. Dillon 17.0 pts – BOOM
I have no reason to doubt Dillon. Seemingly every time the Packers decide to give this guy carries he has a great game. He is dominant, as his huge frame makes it nearly impossible to get him down. On top of this, he only gets better as the game goes on as defenses get tired and his legs never stop churning. In a division matchup against the Vikings, depending on how many carries he gets, he could have a huge week.
RB Saquon Barkley 15.9 pts – BUST
Saquon is undoubtedly one of the most talented RBs in the entire league, but he hasn’t quite proved he can continue to produce. Injuries have kept him sidelined for most of his career, and this year has been no different. He has only played in 4 games this year, as he sustained a gruesome ankle injury in week 5. When he is on the field he produces, but I see the Giants limiting his workload in his first game back in a while. Later in the season, I could see him take over as a top 5 fantasy RB, but right now that seems unrealistic.
WR Deebo Samuel 18.0 pts – BOOM
Deebo Samuel is emerging as the best WR in the 2019 class, which is a testament to his incredible production in the 2021 season so far. He has the second-most receiving yards so far sitting at 979, 100 above the third-most Davante Adams at 864. He has been balling out on a mediocre team, and he deserves some recognition for that. He has topped off his great start to the season with an incredible game on MNF where he racked up 5 receptions for 97 yards and a TD, as well as a rushing TD on 5 attempts. Against a lackluster Jaguars defense, I have no problem starting Samuel.
WR Marquise Brown 15.5 pts – BUST
Marquise Brown is another example of a breakout WR, as he has also emerged as a solid WR from the 2019 draft class. After an extremely disappointing 2020 season where he quite literally played like the worst WR1 in the league, he has turned it around in 2021. He sits at #11 in receiving yards, right around big-name players. He has cemented his status as a star in my eyes, but I just have a feeling it will be a low-scoring game vs. the Bears this week. Jaylon Johnson is a solid corner who will most likely tail Brown all game, and I see him coming in around 12 points if he can’t find the end zone.
TE Tyler Conklin 9.4 pts – BOOM
In a big divisional matchup, I see Conklin finding the end zone and grabbing a TD after his 2 from last week. The Vikings always seem to know how to score with their big men, so I would be pretty confident with Conklin in my lineup this week.
TE C.J. Uzomah 7.2 pts – BUST
For no other reason than my intuition, I just don’t love Uzomah this week. Every once in a while he has a breakout game, then he comes back the next week and is a complete bust. A true gamble, but it is safer to say he will be unimpactful this week.