If you somehow haven’t heard, US troops intervened directly into Venezuela and captured their president Nicolas Maduro. This comes after a failed democratic election in the nation last year which was likely rigged. Substantial US pressure was also applied in the leadup to the attack via strikes on supposed traffickers and seizing of tankers.

A Quick History

The history of Venezuela is long and somewhat tumultuous. Venezuela was ruled by a series of somewhat warlord-like leaders called caudillos from fairly early in its history until 1935. That year, the military began sharing control with civilians.In 1945, the president, Isaias Medina Angarita, was overthrown by another party and the military, which then shared power. Elections began to be held and the nation became quite prosperous. However, much of the success was drawn from oil money, so when oil prices dipped in the 70s the economy followed suit. The election of 1998 saw the populist candidate Hugo Chavez elected as president. He ran on nationalizing industries and helping the poor. He began his tenure with massive popular approval but gradually lost support throughout his tenure until he died of cancer in 2013. This leads us to Maduro’s presidency.Maduro was Chavez’s successor. Maduro was narrowly elected and was sworn in the midst of recounts demanded by the opposition. He began to seize power and some of his loyalists in the Supreme Court disbanded the legislature. Mass protests soon followed as the economy plunged due to sanctions. This led Maduro to gain more power and oversee a series of likely rigged elections bringing us to our current position.

The Russia and Chinese Connection

Venezuela has a very interesting system of foreign policy. They tend to work with nations such as Russia, China, and Iran through bilateral agreements. Rather than selling oil on the conventional market which had been sanctioned they pursue direct deals with other nations. This has brought the nations together in a loose coalition. That’s why Russian air defences were in Venezuela and similarly why both China and Russia have interest in what happens in the South American nation. It shows why Russia attempted to send weapons to the Maduro regime to deter foreign military action and why some shadow fleet tankers have been seized by the US off the Venezuelan coast.  This intervention has been able to severely harm both China and Russia’s position in the Hemisphere and has removed an important ally from the region.

Precedent

One argument against this move many people have likely already heard is that this move provides precedent for other powers to do similar moves in their “spheres of influence”. These sorts of arguments are not fundamentally based upon facts but more a poor understanding of foreign affairs. Did Russia care for precedent when they invaded Ukraine? Or when they tried to assassinate Zelensky? Do you think a military planner in the Kremlin or Beijing woke up after Venezuela and suddenly thought they could kidnap the president of the Philippines? And finally, even if they did, the US would respond. Marco Rubio and many other parts of the current administration have been pushing for a pivot to the Pacific. If China tries to make a move on any of the US’s allies in the pacific odds are that the China hawks in this administration would have Trump’s head if he didn’t intervene to stop them. Precedent doesn’t govern world affairs. Power does.

The Means

The operation in Venezuela shows once again the fundamental difference between Russia and the US. Russia tried similar stunts throughout the war in Ukraine and didn’t manage to ever kill Zelensky. He was able to walk in the streets of Kiev while Russia was invading with almost complete safety. And the US was able to circumvent Russian anti-aircraft implements in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas to get to Maduro. This shows a fundamental difference in Russian and US strength as Russian technology appears to be vastly inferior to US tech. It also shows that Russia has not been able to protect its allies in Syria or Venezuela, leaving doubt about what will happen to its other regional allies.

The Broader Context

Now that we have discussed Venezuela, let’s zoom out a bit. There are two important trends in South America that we must discuss. First, democratic backsliding has been a serious issue for South America. Venezuela used to be a democracy before Maduro seized power, Brazil has been struggling with violence and backsliding for years although it has been recovering recently. El Salvador, Ecuador, Mexico, and many others in South America have had struggles with democracy. Additionally, Chinese influence has grown in the Americas in many ways. China is a very large trade partner for many american countries allowing them to expand their power over the economies of South American nations. In addition, China has continued a program called the Belt and Road Initiative. This program was intended to construct infrastructure in nations to build their relations with China. This leads to a loss of US influence in South America and an increase in Chinese presence.

A Mixed Bag

This intervention is necessary in many ways. This has essentially removed another Russian ally from the map as well as allowing for the disposal of a dictator which has overseen the absolute collapse of his own country. It also has removed one of China’s largest military allies in South America. This could also mark a start to a period in which more can be done to fight democratic backsliding in South America. A more assertive America to stop backsliding as it happens would be a force for good in South America. This could also mark more US interest into fighting Chinese influence. If this marks the start of an increased use of US soft power in South America that would be an overall good for the US position in the region. However this is only if the US uses soft, not hard power, to fight Chinese influence. You can’t just invade Chinese aligned nations when you please. The issue is that if this was truly only about oil then this will not be a step in the right direction but rather a step back. 

What Happens Now?

At this point the path forward for Venezuela is murky. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has called for the return of Maduro, but has also promised to cooperate with the Trump administration. And yet the government is cracking down on people who supported the operation within the country. Trump has also made statements seeming to imply that the US should get drilling rights in Venezuela and that the US “controls” Venezuela. It may happen that the government forces in Venezuela attempt a crackdown and do not cooperate with the US. It is also possible that they give drilling rights to American oil companies to appease the white house. A combination of the two is similarly possible. It’s just too early to know what will occur here. Unfortunately the best outcome for the people of Venezuela– a return of the opposition leader to power– has not played out as was hoped. If the US wants to fight Chinese influence in the Americas and Democratic Backsliding we can’t just leave dictators in power. It shouldn’t be about oil, but about freedom.